Though one is fated to be wrong when predicting the future, its almost safe to assume now that the world is staring at a post LTTE era in Sri Lanka.
Instead of being a major player in the island nation, they are being sidelined to the annals of history.
The figures speak for themselves. Its estimated that Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) is down to their last 1000 fighters. They are currently cornered in the jungles of Mullaithivu with an influence within a mere 350 square km. These figures dwarf in comparison with 50K fighters and 15K square km area of influence when the secessionist organization was at its peak.
This must given the confidence to Army Commander Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka when he announced that the 25-year old war was "95 per cent over."
So what went wrong for LTTE ?
For starters, they have been acting as a more belligerent quasi state of late.
The continual slide started in 2006 with their foolish act of shutting the sluice gates and denying water to more than 30,000 civilians in the Eastern Province.
Historically speaking, following are some of their follies -
1. They tried violent means to find a solution to a political issue.
Their is no denying that the Sinhalese chauvinism and Tamil nationalism are equally responsible for this long simmering controversy. In the same breath, it was LTTE
who gave a violent angle to the whole problem.
2. Blowing up anyone and everyone. (ex Indian PM Rajeev Gandhi, Sri Lankan president Ranasinghe Premadasa in 1993 and countless civilians including Tamils as human shields).
This made sure that they find the political support lacking from different quarters including India. It has also not helped that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi(late Mr. Gandhi's widow) is currently the most powerful person in the country. In spite of the gimmicks of their south Indian coalition partners like Mr. Karunanidhi and Vaiko, the government has chosen to show disdain for LTTE albeit concern for civilians in the warzone. That is one important difference to make.
This is more of a reaction in retrospect to the scars that Indian nation faced during IPKF period(1987-1990).
3. Pulling out of Norwegian brokered peace talks in 2003.
Though it appeared to be LTTE's strategic masterstroke at that time, since it was able to recuperate in that time, the Sri Lankan army was also doing the same. Additionally, the government was in an overdrive to bring the country's economy back on its feet.
4. Letting a senior LTTE commander Colonel Karuna to break away in March 2004.
This was just a symptom of a more malignant problem that LTTE was facing, namely, the Tamil community loosing confidence in the tigers.
This incident took away almost 50% of their fighting forces and their support in the eastern parts of SriLanka.
The way ahead.
Firstly, the remaining factions of LTTE should be dealt with swiftly. It should not be allowed to remain a festering wound of the island nation.
Secondly, social institutions like administration, hospitals, police etc. should be created in the vacuum left by the fleeing tigers. This would save precious lives and instill some confidence within the Tamil community.
Lastly, its imperative that the authorities brace up for a post LTTE SriLanka.
It could be done by ensuring that the Tamils are given their due in the political mainstream of the country. This is going to take a Herculean effort and a vision, that looks beyond a probable resurfacing of Sinhalese pride, on part of Mr. Vikramsinghe Rajapaksa. This would make him the hero of a united country and not just that of a fractured one.
The invitation to Indian Tamil politicians like Mr. Karunanidhi and Ms.Jayalalitha for a dialogue is the step in the right direction. Though it appears that the same came at the behest of the Indian Government.
This is a golden opportunity for which the SriLankan people have struggled for more than the quarter of a century.
The world is hoping that they seize it and reinstate the jewel of the Indian ocean in peace and all its grandeur.
